The Itzik Theory in the Israeli elections

February 8, 2009 - 9:39 AM by David

Israel Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman

Israel Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman

With election day Tuesday closing in, the race for the 18th Knesset promises to be one of the closest in history. Thanks to the rising star of Israel Beiteinu and its strong-armed leader Avigdor Lieberman, the wide lead enjoyed by the Likud and Binyamin Netanyahu over Kadima and Tzipi Livni has virtually vanished according to the latest polls, as Leiberman has been stealing away Likud votes on its way to becoming the country’s third most popular party.

The end result is that the two Right-leaning parties may end up cancelling each other out, leaving Kadima with the most seats on Tuesday. However, as Gil Hoffman pointed out in today’s Jerusalem Post, just because you get the most seats doesn’t neccessarily mean you’ll end up being asked by the president to form the coalition. It’s a combination of that, plus an overall look at how many seats the Right bloc gained versus the Left, and perhaps most importantly, which party the other parties advise the president during post-election consultations to deposit the authority of forming the next government coalition to. And according to Hoffman, an overwhelming majority of MKs will advise President Shimon Peres to give that responsbity to the Likud and Netanyahu, no matter the outcome of Tuesday’s elections.

But I feel pretty confident going out on the limb and predicting that Likud will end up topping the list of vote getters on Tuesday. If only because of Itzik.

He’s a 22-year-old resident of Ma’aleh Adumim, and a player in my weekly Shabbat touch football game. Recenly demobilized from the IDF, Itzik has a great, self-deprecating sense of humor, a twinkle in his eye, and like alot of young, Right-leaning Israelis, a has a strong hint of racism against Palestinians and Arab citizens of Israel.

He doesn’t really differentiate between the two, and being brought up on a sea of Palestinian terrorism, from the first Intifada, on down through the rocket attacks on Sderot that prompted the latest war in Gaza, he wants as little to do with Arabs as possible.

Quite naturally, he’s a big supporter of Lieberman. But he’s going to vote for Likud. “Bibi’s obviously going to give Lieberman a very senior cabinet position, so he’ll have alot of authority in the next government. So, I don’t see any reason to vote for Israel Beiteinu, we have to make sure Likud beats Kadima,” he explained during a break in the game.

So, extropolating a little, Israel Beiteinu might actually lose a little support and gain less than the 18 or 19 seats the polls predict. But that’s only because their supporters are going to prop up Likud to ensure a Right victory on Tuesday. That, at least, is the Itzik Theory.

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Comments

5 Comments on The Itzik Theory in the Israeli elections

  1. Harry on Sun, Feb 8th 2009 12:10 PM

    2. I think the massive support the Lieberman is getting is quite odd. I don’t think that most people could name more than a few people on his list. Spooky. In any case, Lieberman will have enough weight to decide who the next PM is going to be. Scary.

  2. David-Joe on Sun, Feb 8th 2009 6:05 PM

    3. Its not spooky Harry. It is symbolic.

    That there are Israelis who want strong leaderrship that does not try and compromise everything. But stands up for that which is Israeli. Israeli ideals. Israeli fate. In a nutshell: ISRAEL FIRST.

    Because while Israelis less than ideal, it is far superior compared to the [by comparison] barbaric anti-human rights and savage countries that surround it.

    Israeli Arabs are fellow citizens. They are, and have always been, in general, by ACTIONS loyal Israelis. They may voice certain positions and support far leftist ideas, but that is also part of their rights as Israelis.

    Compare the Arab citizens of European countries to that of Israel’s. Israel has a lot to be proud of.

    The real racists are found in Europe.

  3. LB on Sun, Feb 8th 2009 8:16 PM

    4. Harry, whatever criticism you have of Lieberman the fact that most Israeli can’t “name more than a few people on his list” is definitely not a valid one. Most Israelis can’t name more than a few people on ANY party’s list. Just one of the reasons the current party system is bankrupt.

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