I’m going to vote for the Jewish guy (or gal)…

February 9, 2009 - 10:05 AM by David

The Israeli political alphabet soup

Despite the blahs surrounding Election Day on Tuesday, the day itself provides a rare opportunity for most Israelis – a day off from work and school!

Aside from Independence Day (Yom Ha’atzmaut), all the other country-wide holidays are built around Jewish holidays – which is great, that’s why we live here. But there’s something special about having a day off without spending it in beit knesset and preparing meals (if you’re observant) or bemoaning the closure of many malls and places of entertainment (if you’re secular).

Lots of people I know are planning dinner parties, outings, hikes and other get togethers, as we celebrate democracy in our own way. The elements may not provide assistance though. Ironically, in one of the dryest winters in history, with our water supply rapidly diminishing, the forecasters are calling for stormy weather to rain on our parade on Tuesday. But we’ll take it, as rain is definitely a patriotic act these days.

The weather may affect the voter turnout, which according to a study conducted in the US
conducted at the University of California and the University of Pittsburgh.

In an article in the Journal of Politics from August 2007, based on a look at US elections from 1948 to 2000, the researchers wrote that weather did have an impact – for every one inch of rain above normal, 0.8 percent of voters stayed away.

So what does it mean for Israeli voters? If the elderly, poor, apathetic or undecided, and women with young children might be more affected by inclement weather, some conclusions can be reached.

Jerusalem Post reporter Ehud Zion Waldoks writes that hardcore voters will turn out in rain or sleet regardless, so parties like Israel Beiteinu, Shas, Meretz and some of the smaller parties could weather the storm just fine. If Kadima and Labor are looking to tap into swing voters, though, they might want to start booking those minivans and taxis.

Labor and the Gil Pensioners Party should be worrying about their elderly voters, while the haredi parties should be worrying about their young mothers. On the other hand, haredi voters have tended to come out in droves to vote according to the directives of their rabbis.
Shas could find cause for concern among its voters in the southern periphery, who might prefer not to brave a stinging sandstorm.

Whatever the weather, Tuesday will be quite a big deal in Israel. It’s the culmination of everything the Zionist pioneers and founding fathers dreamed of. We all complain about the candidates, their lack of leadership, and their various character flaws. But when it comes down to it, isn’t it pretty cool that no matter who is elected to form the coalition, he or she is going to be Jewish?

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