Get your raincoats out, we’re in for a stormy winter

July 14, 2009 - 1:55 PM by Nicky

Well, I may not be a weatherman, or indeed be able to even read a satellite map for that matter, but still I think there’s a good chance that Israel is heading for a rainy winter. No, I didn’t put the seaweed out, and it has nothing to do with aches in assorted parts of my body. It’s because of el Nino.

I came across an article in the international press this morning about how el Nino, a natural meteorological cycle that happens every three to seven years when the Pacific Ocean warms, is making a reappearance this year. Experts are predicting wild weather over the next year, from floods in the US and South America, to droughts in Australia, Africa and Asia.

Interesting, I thought. But what does that mean for Israel? A quick Internet search revealed that in el Nino years, Israel gets more rainfall than usual. In fact, scientists at the Weizmann Institute and the Blaustein Institute for Desert Research had rather handily done a paper on it.

The 1996 study showed that there was a striking correlation between el Nino and above-average rainfall in central Israel over the previous 20 years. The winter of 1991/2, for instance, when Israel experienced the worst rainfall in a century, coincided with one of the most devastating el Nino’s in recent years.

Other years with heavy rainfall included 1997-8, 1986-7, and 1982-3 – all of them el Nino years. The scientists also discovered something else – in La Nina years – where the Pacific ocean cools rather than warms– Israel often experiences its driest years.

So far, this time around, experts are predicting a moderate el Nino, but they are warning that sea temperatures are still rising.

With Israel in possibly the most serious drought of its existence, and a water tax about to go into effect tomorrow or the next day, this can’t be anything but good news. While the rest of the world waits with trepidation to discover just how bad this el Nino will be, we at least appear to have something rather good to look forward to.

Tags: , , , , , • Category: Environment, General, Life 

Comments

2 Comments on Get your raincoats out, we’re in for a stormy winter

  1. Picture of the week – first rains | ISRAELITY on Wed, Sep 23rd 2009 7:54 AM

    2. [...] have to wait and see what comes next. As we enter an El Nino year, some people are anticipating a wet winter as rainfall patterns across the world respond to the warmer [...]

  2. Jacob on Mon, Feb 1st 2010 9:50 PM

    3. “worst rainfall”
    I really hate puffery like this. Is “worst rainfall” bad? You make it sound like a fashion show. How about just giving us the numbers. How much rainfall did we get in the El Nino years and how much did we get in the La Nina years? (measured in a normal scale like cm or total liters not “raised the level of the Kineret 10cm”)

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