New Knesset elected, coalition talks underway
Filed under: A New Reality, General, History and Culture, Politics
The results are in. The election is finally over. Even though the Bibi Netanyahu-led Likud party was well ahead in the polls a few weeks ago, Tzipi Livni’s Kadima garnered one more seat than Likud in a stunning photo finish, explained by Haaretz thusly:
Livni forced Netanyahu to treat her as an equal, despite his negative ads claiming the job is “too big for her.” From that point, he lost the advantage of experience. Livni proved to be an expert campaigner who saved enough energy for the final and decisive round.
Several fascinating statistical and graphical breakdowns of the results can be seen here, while a breakdown of the number of seats per party, along with plenty of analysis and victory speech soundbytes, can be seen here.
Perhaps because the left has splintered into several newer and smaller parties, many of which did not garner enough votes for even one Knesset seat, the mainstream left-wing Labor, led by Ehud Barak, will only hold 14 seats, leaving its leadership disillusioned and vowing to sit out of coalition talks.
Avigdor Lieberman’s hardcore right-wing Israel Beiteinu managed to crystallize Israel’s right-of-center undecided, which, in essence, ended up detracting from Likud’s support among hard-liners, which, in turn, gave the relatively centrist (but Ariel Sharon-founded) Kadima a proportionate edge (causing the world to wonder where this leaves us in terms of options for diplomacy with the Palestinians).
However, it’s Israel Beiteinu that’s going to make or break any coalition which Livni has already hit the ground running trying to form, so Lieberman’s agenda hasn’t backfired completely. Let’s not forget that this is Livni’s second chance to try and form a coalition, with the first time around, this past fall, not yielding any results at all.
So yes, it does seem that public opinion here has moved towards the right, and it’s parties which sit decidedly on the right which have the power to make or break a government. But at the same time, the Likud’s failure to seal the deal says quite a bit about the strength of the middle ground (whatever that may or may not mean).
Image courtesy tzipilivni2009 from Flickr under a Creative Commons license.
Israel elections a defeat for everyone
Filed under: A New Reality, General, Israeliness, Politics, Pop Culture
The Siamese twins of Israeli politics.
If last night’s voting tally – showing a slight victory for Kadima and Tzipi Livni over the Likud and Bibi Netanyahu, but overall a stronger showing by the Right block – proves anything, it’s that our electoral system is as irreparably fractured as the population of the country.
We’re in a situation where the party that received the most votes is going to likely end up out of the government and in the opposition – sort of like Al Gore and the Democrats in 2000. Netanyahu, instead of graciously accepting defeat and offering Livni the opportunity to form a coalition – a task she failed to do last year which resulted in these elections, and which she’s unlikely to do now – instead claimed a from the back end victory.
While smaller Right wing parties like Habayit Hayehudi and the National Union sapped votes from Likud – not to mention Israel Beiteinu and Avigdor Lieberman maintaining their strong showing of 2006 despite predictions they would do even better – Kadima undoubtedly lost a mandate or two from those well-meaning souls who gallantly but gullibly threw their support to the Green Movement-Meimad or the Green Leaf parties.
The spread of parties in the next Knesset, therefore, is going to continue to be a representation of the total schism in Israel society, where Arab parties, the Sephardic stronghold Shas, the waning Left faction Meretz, and the fringe Right Wing parties all sit together and cause a paralysis.
It’s time to raise the minimum threshold to even run for the Knesset by 1,000 percent or so, and cap the number of parties to 10 maximum, instead of this year’s unmanageable, outrageous 34. It may not be democratic, but neither is the government we’re going to get next.
What in the world made people like Ephraim Sneh or Michael Melchior think they could garner enough votes to even get one Knesset seat? Can anyone name a difference between Habayit Hayehudi and the National Union? the Green Movement and the Greens? And for that matter, Kadima and Likud?
If the politicians really believed their mantra that the good of the country comes first, then next week, we would see a coalition announced consisting of Kadima, Likud, and either Labor, Israel Beiteinu or Shas. But don’t think for a second that’s going to happen.
Ah, the hell with it. I’m going to bury my head in the new Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue with Israel’s own Bar Refaeli on the cover. At least that’s something we can take pride in.
In need of rain? Ask a government minister
Filed under: Environment, General, Israeliness, Life, Religion
I feel like a fish that has been left out of water too long. I’m literally gasping for rain. Being one of those foreign transplants from grey, rainy Britain, Israel’s warm climate is a frequent source of joy. But while I enjoy the heat and the sunshine, I still need the storms and rain of winter to help me get through the long, hot, barren, endlessly blue and sunny summers where I seem to suffer a kind of reverse seasonal affect disorder.
Oh for a good heavy rainstorm...
This year I’m not the only one. Even the most hardened Israeli sun-lovers, who normally complain of depression after just one day of rain, are protesting. And with reason. It’s been the driest January since Israeli records began, and it comes after four other exceptionally dry years.
From 1980 to 2007, the available volume of water in Lake Kinneret was 328 million cubic meters a year. This year it will be just 45 million cubic meters. Prof. Uri Shani, head of the Water Authority said the probability of Israel having such a dry winter, after a series of four dry years, was practically zero – but when did probability enter into global warming.
There are all sorts of plans afoot on how to deal with this water crisis – plans which quite frankly should have been put in place a year or two ago, but possibly the most kooky of the lot comes from Agriculture Minister Shalom Simhon, who has come up with the idea of changing all the mezuzot in the Israel Water Authority offices.
Under Jewish tradition, a mezuzah is a piece of parchment inscribed with specific Hebrew verses from the Torah, which is put inside a special case and attached to doorframes as a kind of blessing. Some people like to kiss their hand and touch the case as they go in and out of the building, for good luck.
Simhon’s big plan, then, is to change the blessings inside these mezuzot in an effort to change Israel’s luck with rainfall patterns. The minister explained his logic by telling other ministers that when Labor was at an all-time low in the polls, he changed the mezuzot at the Labor House, and the party doubled its strength.
Good to know the water crisis is in capable hands, eh? Perhaps we should also consider bringing a tribe of native Indians across to do a rainfall dance. Of course water rationing, and a desalination plant or two might also help. But hell, what would I know, I’m not a government minister.
The next prime minister of Israel – Dennis Ross?
Ross - Ammunition both for and against Bibi
With the major parties – Kadima and Likud – frothing at the bit after being held up due to the the ‘national unity’ displayed during the war in Gaza, they’re now finally unleashing the campaigns that their spin doctors and media specialists have been cooking up these last few weeks.
And, strangely enough, they’re using some of the same strategy, courtesy of a one-time aide to Bill Clinton who is set to make a comeback under President Barack Obama – Dennis Ross. The former Middle East negotiator, who’s expected to be appointed as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s point man on Iran, was up to his elbows in the Israel-Palestinian issue during the 1990s and he knew all the players involved.
That’s why both Kadima and Likud are planning to use quotes from Ross’s published memoirs to both praise and bury Likud leader Bibi Netanyahu, according to Gil Hoffman writing in The Jerusalem Post.
“Bibi rarely seemed to know how to act on his ideas – how to present them, to whom, and even when to do so,” Ross wrote about Netanyahu in a quote from his book, The Missing Peace, that was distributed by Kadima. “Translating an idea into action seemed beyond his grasp. It was not lack of intelligence… it was the lack of judgment… but there was something more: Often he would come up with ideas simply to get himself out of a jam.”
The Likud, by contrast, focused on Ross quotes that were policy-oriented and not personal. They distributed interviews with Ross and articles he wrote in which he regretted not insisting upon reciprocity with the Palestinians as Netanyahu had advised him.
“Rather than trying to resolve issues like Jerusalem and refugees, we would have focused on expanding the scope of Palestinian independence from Israeli control, developing and investing in the Palestinian economy, and expanding the connections between the Israeli and Palestinian societies,” Ross wrote in The Wall Street Journal in June 2007, sounding very much like Netanyahu’s current “economic peace” diplomatic plan.
How the new prime minister of Israel will work with the Obama administration is playing a big role in the election propoganda.
Likud officials said they hoped Kadima would continue to portray Netanyahu as someone who would have a difficult relationship with the Obama administration, because they believe this would help Netanyahu win more support among the public. Both Kadima and Labor have already started warning that Netanyahu would have an adversarial relationship with Obama, according to Hoffman.
“Whoever thinks that it will be easy for Israel with Netanyahu as prime minister is wrong,” Welfare and Social Services Minister Isaac Herzog told Army Radio on Friday. “It will be hard because it seems that Netanyahu’s policies will be in direct contrast with those of Obama.”
So while Americans can now relax in the knowledge that the election is over and Obama is firmly ensconced in the White House, here in Israel, the charismatic leader is still smack in the middle of the election campaign.
GA Wrap-Up: Day 1
As written about here, the GA’s in town and so are thousands of Jewish leaders from the US, Israel, and around the world. So what goes on at this mega-conference anyway?
Here’s one wrap-up:
Edgar Bronfman tells us that at age 36, David Ben-Gurion was the head of the Labor Party. Herzl was 36 when he came to Palestine. Anybody else feel like an underachiever? Suddenly, winning at Sudoku doesn’t feel quite as important anymore. I officially have two years to do something. He says let’s not talk about intermarriage as an enemy but as a reality. He continues, saying that the biggest threats to the Jewish community are ignorance and apathy, “I don’t know and I don’t care.” I have one thing to say to that. WHATEVER.
Edgar Bronfman gets his speech on. E-Bron, if you’re reading this…umm, can I go out with your granddaughter? Grandson? Cleaning lady? I’m not picky.For a full wrap-up, check out more at What War Zone???
Jerusalem Election Diary: Haaretz gets it so wrong
I don’t usually write about the same topic two weeks in a row, but, with less than a week to go, the upcoming Jerusalem mayoral elections is so important that I feel compelled to post again.
Last Friday, Haaretz published an editorial slamming mayoral candidate Nir Barkat and endorsing “a responsible haredi” (a code word for Meir Porush, the only ultra Orthodox candidate running for the position). Many Jerusalemites like me were outraged.
The reason for Haaretz’s position is that Barkat has come out in support of building a Jewish neighborhood near the Arab village of Anata, at the foot of the Jerusalem neighborhood of French Hill. The area has long been a thorn in the Palestinian’s side: building there would help connect Jerusalem to the satellite city of Ma’aleh Adumim in the West Bank, but it would also have the effect of preventing territorial contiguity for a new Palestinian state.
Barkat says that building this new Jewish neighborhood will help solve the city’s “shortage of housing for students and young people.” But it’s also a clear ploy to help win over Jerusalem’s “swing vote” – the Modern Orthodox residents who, according to recent polls, are split between Barkat and rival Porush. Given that most of the city’s voters, whether religious or secular, tend to be right wing, it’s not a bad campaign tactic.
Whether you agree or disagree with Barkat’s position, Haaretz – by coming out against the current front-runner in the race – is saying something far more disturbing about Israel’s attitude towards Jerusalem.
Haaretz is, in effect, giving up on Jerusalem. Or perhaps they already have. In the eyes of the Tel Aviv-based newspaper, Jerusalem is already all religious; there’s nothing to do here; no nightlife; it’s too far away; too dangerous; too tense; and ultimately not even worth a visit. The Western Wall, the Old City, the quaint alleyways and gourmet restaurants, the cool summer air, the unique architecture, the spirituality, the Knesset and center of government – all of these are unimportant to the enlightened readers of Haaretz where the heaviness and tension that are part and parcel of Israel’s capital might, God forbid, impede the never ending pursuit of next party.
Indeed, to Haaretz, Jerusalem is not a city at all. It’s a metaphor, a bargaining chip on the geo-political stage to be divided in an eventual peace. Anything getting in the way of that end must be resisted, fought, denigrated. Haaretz couldn’t care less about the problems the city faces, from transportation gridlock to cleanliness and jobs, reverse emigration, religiously-mandated unemployment, and a rapidly deteriorating education system, all areas for which Barkat – in contrast to the other mayoral hopefuls – has clear, step-by-step plans for rapid execution. The quality of life in Jerusalem can go to hell, Haaretz is saying, as long as the next mayor doesn’t stoop to interfere with the inevitable outcome of Oslo and Annapolis.
Here we go again
So, it’s all but a foregone conclusion that we’re headed for early elections. Just what this country needs.
Kadima leader Tzippi Livni, claiming that she wasn’t ready to give in to the ‘blackmail’ of potential coalition partners like Shas, took the high road and went to President Shimon Peres today and returned the mandate he entrusted her with last month to form a new government.
So barring some unforeseen blip, and owing to the convoluted manner the president and the Knesset parties must behave now, we’re looking at mid-Feburary for election day. And guess who’s prime minister til then? Ehud Olmert.
Ain’t Israeli politics grand?
I’m actually looking forward to the campaigning, because the televised election ads are among the most entertaining moments of TV since the original Saturday Night Live in the mid-1970s.
That’s about the only consolation to the whole ordeal, because whether Livni and Kadim come out on top again (highly unlikely), the Labor Party and Ehud Barak make a comeback (even unlikelier), or the Likud and Bibi Netanyahu clean up (Lord help us because it’s very likely), the resulting coalition will be very similar to The Who’s “Won’t Get Fooled Again”, which goes “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”
I’m sure that despite the fateful issues and decisions facing us, the next elections will have a record low turnout. Until we start producing some new blood and new ideas, more and more Israelis are going to continue turning off to politics. And it’s a time when we can ill afford to leave our fate to others to decide.
Maybe the environmental Green Party will finally galvanize voters and become this next election’s Pensioners’ party or Shinui – a dark horse coming out of nowhere.to capture the minds and hearts of the population.
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